Nicky Minaj — Orchitis within days?! Can it be coincidence?!
Nicky Minaj is very upset because orchitis happened within days of a COVID-19 vaccination.
The rate of orchitis per year is 9.09 per 100,000 people. There are 5.8 billion doses administered. About 30% are single doses, so we correct for this, and find about 3.5 billion people vaccinated 1 or more times. So, there should be 316,332 cases of orchitis among 3.5 billion vaccinated people in the year of administration of vaccine. Divide 316,332 by 365 days per year, and you have the approximate minimum number of cases of orchitis that should appear on the day of vaccination. 866.66 cases.
If we take Nicky’s criteria of “within days” and assume that is 3 days, then we multiply 866.66 x 3 = 2600 cases of orchitis in the population that is vaccinated.
So the odds are overwhelming that an orchitis case will occur within 3 days of a vaccine.
It’s a kind of lottery. A numbers game. 2600/5.8 billion is a very small number for an individual, but since you have a very large number of individuals, the odds are certain that it will happen. So, for that one kid, it’s tiny. But it’s like getting struck by lightning. Someone is going to have that happen.
Actually, this number is a little low, because for half of those vaccinated people, they have 2 periods of 3 days to get orchitis, so the number is higher. I will leave that as an exercise for the reader.
There is another problem, that cuts the number in half — what is it? I will award a golden banana by name on this blog to the first 5 people to figure it out.
